FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Michigan repeat? Notre Dame in playoff? Five overreactions from Week 4 in college football

Now that more than a quarter of the college football regular season is FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centerin the books, we have a few useful data points to help us evaluate what we’ve witnessed thus far. The picture is far from complete, of course, with quite a few teams yet to embark on the conference portion of their schedules. In short, there’s still plenty of room to overreact.

Our top five overreactions from Week 4 include a reassessment of the playoff viability of a couple of one-loss squads, a little premature crowning of some conference champs, and a peek at the crowded race to represent the group-of-five leagues. Maybe this edition just means less, but since the SEC practically monopolized this space last time out we’ll spotlight other conferences here.

Michigan will repeat as national champion

The dream is more alive than it was a week ago at this time thanks to the Wolverines’ win against Southern California, and the Week 2 loss to Texas is hardly disqualifying on its own. But Michigan’s path to the playoff, either as Big Ten champion or as an at-large invitee, remains murky at best.

The Wolverines were able to break off some big runs against the Trojans, but their offense is almost exclusively one-dimensional. The formula of taking few chances and controlling the line of scrimmage will work against some opponents, but there are some high-scoring clubs still on Michigan’s schedule. The Wolverines are in the mix, but we’ll need to see more before we move them back into the likely column to make the field of 12.

Notre Dame is still an at-large candidate

The Fighting Irish took care of their own business over the weekend, avoiding a second loss to a visitor from the Mid-American Conference. But a number of other results did not work in Notre Dame’s favor.

The notable measure of collateral damage came courtesy of the team that toppled the Irish two weeks ago, as Northern Illinois dropped its MAC opener to Buffalo. Furthermore, Notre Dame’s dominant bounce-back win at Purdue doesn’t appear as though it will count for much, as the Boilermakers were throttled by Oregon State. The aforementioned loss by USC, a Notre Dame future opponent, also didn’t help. At least Texas A&M was able to outlast Bowling Green, but it remains to be seen how well Notre Dame’s win against the Aggies in Week 1 will hold up. At least the next outing for the Irish against Louisville presents another opportunity against a ranked opponent, but a lot of factors that would help the Irish get back into the at-large pool are out of their control. We’ll talk more about Louisville in our next item.

HIGHS AND LOWS: Winners and losers from Week 4 in college football

MISERY INDEX: North Carolina lead way after loss to James Madison

The Clemson-Miami ACC title game is inevitable

The Tigers have found their groove after being shut down by Georgia in Week 1, and the Hurricanes are blowing through everyone in their path. They would appear to be on a collision course given the struggles of most other expected contenders in the ACC. The Tigers and Miami will not meet in the regular season, and the Tigers’ remaining league schedule in particular would seem to have few impediments.

There is, however, one other conference member that could still have something to say about the race. No, not Florida State. The Seminoles do play both the ‘Canes and the Tigers but have shown no indication of being able to challenge either.

As you’ve undoubtedly surmised, we’re talking about Louisville. The Cardinals, remember, played for the ACC title last season. They will host Miami on Oct. 19 and visit Death Valley two weeks later, likely needing at least a split of those to make a return trip to the title game. We think the Clemson-Miami showdown is the most likely championship game scenario, but nothing in this sport is etched in stone.

Just send the Big 12 trophy to Utah

With the win at Oklahoma State in the bank and the Sunflower State contenders fading, the Utes are clearly in the driver’s seat in their new conference at this early juncture. The remainder of their schedule looks quite manageable with only a couple of potential obstacles.

Most fans in the Beehive State probably have Nov. 9 circled on the calendar already, when the Utes will renew acquaintances with old rival Brigham Young. The Cougars, off to a 4-0 start themselves coming off a surprisingly one-sided victory against Kansas State, have just added another level of intrigue to the coming reunion. Utah will then have to tangle with a resurgent Iowa State a couple weeks later. Other X-factors could emerge, but Utah is the clear favorite. How the Utes handle wearing the big target will be a major storyline to follow the rest of the way.

James Madison will make the College Football Playoff

The Dukes’ 70-point outburst at North Carolina certainly got the college football world’s attention. Could JMU’s rapid rise from FCS power to instant Sun Belt contender result in a shot at the title this quickly? It’s not out of the question, but there are a slew of other teams in that mix.

Remember, only the highest ranked conference champion from among the Group of Five leagues will earn a spot in the current playoff format. Should the Dukes win the Sun Belt, and that’s still a big if with a number of good teams in that league, they’d need to finish ahead of the champs from the other four non-power conferences. The losses by Northern Illinois and Memphis over the weekend didn’t hurt, but there are still plenty of candidates from the American Athletic and the Mountain West in the equation. Bottom line, there’s a lot to watch with conference play about to begin in earnest across the country. Enjoy.