FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Who Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek play in US Open fourth round, and other must-watch matches

NEW YORK – The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank CenterU.S. Open is often a tournament where the grind of a long tennis season shows up and some of the top players struggle to get to the second week.

But this year, the women’s draw has had a pretty consistent theme: The best players for most of this year have been the best players in New York.

Not only have six of the top seven seeds reached the round of 16 – the exception being No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina, who withdrew from the second round due to injury – but also other in-form players like former No. 2 Paula Badosa, rising star Diana Shnaider and recent Olympic silver medalist Donna Vekic have all advanced.

It sets up an enticing second week, where as many as 10 players have a realistic chance to take home the trophy.

Here are the five must-watch matches of the fourth round on Sunday and Monday.

Coco Gauff vs. Emma Navarro

Even though Navarro is three years older, she feels like the newcomer in the latter stages of Grand Slams. Just three years removed from winning the NCAA singles championship at Virginia, Navarro has quickly made her way to No. 12 in the world with a 48-19 record this year. And she got her most important win thus far at Gauff’s expense in the Wimbledon round of 16, outplaying her by a wide margin in a 6-4, 6-3 victory.

Gauff struggled to maintain her patience and composure that day, but the U.S. Open should be a more favorable environment for her. She’s the defending champion, after all, and competes extremely hard in Arthur Ashe Stadium regardless of how she’s playing. The question is Gauff’s current level. Even in her 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 win over Elina Svitolina on Friday, there were stretches of questionable play. She’s going to have to be a lot cleaner to beat Navarro, who is exceptionally fit and just doesn’t miss a lot of balls.

Zheng Qinwen vs. Donna Vekic

These two played just a few weeks ago for the gold medal in Paris, with Zheng prevailing 6-2, 6-3. Life has been a whirlwind for Zheng since then, including a big trip back to China before heading to North America. In some ways, it’s surprising she had enough in the tank just to reach the second week here. But after needing three sets to get through two of those matches, how much further can she push it?

This looks like a really good spot for Vekic to turn the tables, as she’s rolled through the first three rounds without dropping a set. Vekic has had a pretty spectacular summer, reaching the Wimbledon semifinals before the Olympics.

Jessica Pegula vs. Diana Shnaider

Pegula’s 0-6 record in Grand Slam quarterfinals is the only sore spot in a career that has wildly exceeded expectations. Though she’d love to end that narrative in the U.S. Open, Pegula is going to face a huge test on Monday against Shnaider, who has already won three WTA titles this year at age 20.

Shnaider, a Russian whose trademark is covering her hair with a bandanna on the court, first landed on the radar after winning a round in the 2023 Australian Open but deciding to attend NC State for one semester rather than immediately turning pro.

Since joining the tour full time, Shnaider has been sensational, winning titles this year on hard court, grass and clay. This is her first real run in a Grand Slam, but there are certainly going to be many more. Shnaider has a big game, but how will it hold up under pressure against an experienced player like Pegula who is good at absorbing pace in baseline rallies?

Karolina Muchova vs. Jasmine Paolini

This one is for the hardcore tennis fans. Muchova has had a star-crossed career, with injuries derailing her seemingly every time she’s about to ascend to the top of the sport. Paolini, after several years where she just wasn’t really a factor at all in big tournaments, is suddenly in the mix everywhere and made back-to-back finals this summer at the French Open and Wimbledon.

Whereas Paolini is an effervescent ball of energy on the court, Muchova is a smooth operator who probably possesses more shot variety than any player in women’s tennis. It says a lot about Muchova’s talent that after missing more than nine months due to wrist surgery, she’s contending in just her sixth tournament back. Muchova lost to Gauff in last year’s semifinals.

Iga Swiatek vs. Liudmila Samsonova

The two matches they played in 2023 weren’t competitive, with Swiatek winning both easily. But Samsonova is, at least in theory, the type of player who gives her problems: A big hitter who can make Swiatek uncomfortable by taking away her time to set up on the baseline. On the other hand, Samsonova is pretty streaky so it’s hard to know whether you’re getting the good version or the wildly inaccurate version on any given day.

Despite being No. 1 by a considerable margin, Swiatek has had a rough year in the Grand Slams outside of Roland Garros, which she won for a fourth time. After third-round exits in Australia and at Wimbledon, there’s some pressure on Swiatek to post another deep run before the year ends.