NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Can Lionel Messi and Inter Miami make the MLS playoffs? Postseason path not easy.

Lionel Messi already has played eight games for Inter Miami,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center but has yet to play a MLS regular-season match.

Messi won the Leagues Cup with Inter Miami, collecting a record-setting 44th trophy. And he's in contention for a 45th trophy as Inter Miami has advanced to the final of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup.

What would be the chances for Messi and Inter Miami to go after the MLS Cup trophy, too?

Well, that gets a bit more complicated. Starting Saturday against the New York Red Bulls, Messi and Inter Miami will hope to embark on one of the most impressive late-season surges to make the playoffs. It will be a tall task, even for arguably the greatest soccer player of all time and his revamped team.

Adding to the challenge is the amount of games Messi has played in a short period of time. Wednesday night's U.S. Open Cup semifinal win over FC Cincinnati was Inter Miami's sixth win-or-go-home knockout game in 22 days. On Saturday when Miami returns to Major League Soccer regular-season play, it will have three games in a nine-day span.

How many teams make the MLS playoffs?

A total of 18 teams will make the MLS postseason field, the top nine finishers in each conference.

What is the probability of Inter Miami making the MLS playoffs?

Not great!

Inter Miami dug a massive hole for itself in the pre-Messi era and sits dead last in the Eastern Conference on just 18 points from the regular season's first 22 games. The ninth-place finisher in the Eastern Conference during the 2022 season had 42 points; in 2021 the ninth-place team had 47 points.

Just to be safe, let's say Inter Miami needs to get to that 47-point benchmark to have any chance to make the postseason. That would mean averaging 2.4 points a game, winning at least eight of the final 12 games. However, any loss would be devastating.

Is there precedent for MLS teams making playoffs after slow starts?

There is good news for Inter Miami. Several teams have overcome horrid first halves to make the postseason.

The most similar comparison for Inter Miami would be D.C. United in 2018, which produced just 17 points in 18 games played prior to the MLS All-Star break. Galvanized by the midseason arrival of Wayne Rooney, D.C. United earned 34 points in its final 16 games to reach the playoffs. That same season, the Seattle Sounders were 7-9-5 before going 11-2 to close out the season and make the playoffs.

Who does Inter Miami play?

• New York Red Bulls at Red Bull Arena (Aug. 26): The Red Bulls currently own the longest active playoff streak in major American sports at 13 seasons (MLB's Los Angeles Dodgers and WNBA's Phoenix Mercury are tied for the next-best streaks at 10 seasons). However, RBNY returns to MLS play sitting three points behind eighth-place CF Montréal and ninth-place Chicago Fire FC in the Eastern Conference. The Red Bulls have been good at Red Bull Arena, sporting a 6-3-4 record at home in MLS play (meanwhile, they are a dismal 1-6-4 on the road).

• Nashville SC at DRV PNK Stadium (Aug. 30): Nashville won't have to wait long to get vengeance against Inter Miami for its dramatic Leagues Cup final loss. Nashville might sit in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, but can use the momentum of an impressive Leagues Cup in the push toward the playoffs.

• Los Angeles FC at BMO Stadium (Sept. 3): Prior to Messi's arrival in Miami, LAFC was the closest thing MLS had to a "Super Club." Winners of MLS Cup and the Supporters' Shield last season, and Concacaf Champions League runners-up this year, LAFC has achieved much success in its short history. This Labor Day weekend matchup will be a heavyweight showdown some might peg as a potential MLS Cup preview if Inter Miami can sneak into the playoffs.

• Sporting Kansas City at DRV PNK Stadium (Sept. 9): SKC is in a desperate playoff push of its own, sitting five points behind Minnesota United and Vancouver Whitecaps teams that occupy the Western Conference's final playoff spots. A once-upon-a-time playoff regular, SKC has missed the playoffs in two of the past four seasons.

• Atlanta United at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Sept. 16): Six points clear of the playoff line, Atlanta is in a good position to reach the postseason. Inter Miami and Atlanta United met in Leagues Cup group play, with Messi scoring twice in a lopsided 4-0 win. This one will be in Atlanta, however, where the Five Stripes own a 7-2-3 record in league play.

• Toronto FC at DRV PNK Stadium (Sept. 20): Toronto's 2023 season has been an absolute mess. A brutal start to the season — and reports of internal discord — resulted in the firing of former USMNT coach Bob Bradley. At the time of Bradley's firing, Toronto FC had the league's highest payroll, and only the pre-Messi ineptitude of Inter Miami kept Toronto from occupying the Eastern Conference cellar. Firing Bradley hasn't meant better results, however, as Toronto has lost nine straight in all competitions.

• Orlando City SC at Exploria Stadium (Sept. 24): Inter Miami eliminated Orlando during the Round of 32 in the Leagues Cup, thanks to two Messi goals. Orlando has been one of the Eastern Conference's top teams this season, sitting tied with the Philadelphia Union for third place. A must-win for Miami, coupled with Orlando vying for playoff positioning, could give this burgeoning rivalry another boost.

• New York City FC at DRV PNK Stadium (Sept. 30): Like their crosstown rivals the New York Red Bulls, NYCFC is on the outside looking in on the Eastern Conference playoff picture. It would be a surprise to see NYCFC not make the playoff field after qualifying for the postseason in every season after its inaugural 2015 campaign.

• Chicago Fire FC at Soldier Field (Oct. 4): Once one of MLS's best teams, Chicago has fallen on hard times. It has made the playoffs just twice in the last 13 seasons. Chicago currently is hanging on to the Eastern Conference's final playoff spot, but its station is tenuous.

• FC Cincinnati at DRV PNK Stadium (Oct. 7): Cincinnati currently is in the driver's seat for the Supporters' Shield, and will be determined to win the first trophy in team history. In the Leagues Cup and U.S. Open Cup, Miami has proven it can play with the league's best teams. It would be in Cincinnati's best interests to do all it can to keep Messi and Miami out of the playoff field, even if it has already clinched the Supporters' Shield at this point.

• Charlotte FC at DRV PNK Stadium (TDB) and at Bank of America Stadium (Oct. 21): The two teams met in the quarterfinals of the Leagues Cup (a 4-0 Miami win), necessitating a postponement of the originally scheduled Aug. 20 matchup. Charlotte is in a similar position as Miami in the Eastern Conference race, desperately needing results to make the playoff field.