FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|After wake-up call at home, Celtics need to beat Heat in Game 3, quell potential panic

Don’t overreact to Boston’s 111-101 Game 2 loss to the Miami Heat in their Eastern Conference first-round series.

Let’s not underreact,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center either.

It was a bad loss. The East’s No. 1 seed that won a league-best 64 games and is playing the No. 8 seed that was barely over .500 during the regular season and is without its best player (Jimmy Butler) and another strong scorer (Terry Rozier) shouldn’t lose Game 2 at home.

But the Celtics did. It happens. Regardless of whom is on the court for the Heat, last I checked, they are still paid professionals and among the best basketball players in the world with a high degree of competitive pride that motivates them.

Miami’s Erik Spoelstra is arguably the best coach in the NBA. Center Bam Adebayo is a finalist for defensive player of the year. The roster is filled with players who have deep playoffs experience, including last season’s run to the NBA Finals. They aren’t the Washington Generals.

But the Heat also needed to make a playoff franchise-record 23 3-pointers and shoot a smoking 53.5% on 3s to beat the Celtics by 10. It’s hard to win a game when the opponent makes that many 3s at that percentage.

So after taking care of business in Game 1, the Celtics slipped in Game 2. What matters more than the Game 2 loss is what happens in Game 3 on Saturday in Miami (6 p.m. ET, TNT).

By the most meaningful measures – wins and losses, offensive and defensive efficiency – the Celtics are a better team this season than last, and the additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday helped make that possible. Jayson Tatum is headed for another All-NBA selection, and Jaylen Brown is an All-Star.

The Heat play well against the Celtics in the playoffs, going 12-10 since 2019. While 23 made 3s is not a sustainable formula for success each game, the Heat have made 14 or more 3s nine times in playoff games against Boston.

But this is more about how the Celtics respond and how they perform better offensively and defensively. They need better ball movement and execution while not letting Adebayo have such a defensive impact. And they can’t allow Tyler Herro (and the pick-and-roll with Adebayo) to dominate like he did, accounting for 62 of Miami’s points. He scored 24 and his 14 assists created 38 points.

For comparison in the West, the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder did their job, taking care of the eighth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans 124-92 in Game 2 after a down-to-the-wire Game 1.

The Celtics need to win Game 3. Boston’s playoff challenge came earlier than expected against the shorthanded Heat, and perhaps the Celtics benefit from this moment.

That means they can’t afford to fall behind 2-1 in the series and let even the smallest bit of concern creep in against Miami, which beat the Celtics in the conference finals last season, winning Game 7 in Boston.

The Celtics don’t want that stress in the first round.

Follow NBA columnist Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt